Lebanon's growing trend of arms and militiasSana Abdallah & agency dispatches (ME Times - October 5, 2007)

BEIRUT -- The political crisis in Lebanon could take a turn for the worse as security authorities focus on a resurging and disturbing trend that is capable of dragging the country back into another civil war: armed militias. Lebanese newspapers Friday splashed their pages with photographs of young men and women dressed in military fatigues, carrying machine guns, and some undergoing paramilitary training. The authorities, who distributed the images, said those depicted were members of former army Gen. Michel Aoun's Christian opposition Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). They said two FPM members had been arrested Thursday after the photographs were found, and accused them of carrying out illegal paramilitary training. The group denied the allegations, saying the photographs were taken over-18-months-ago and the youth were volunteers protecting Aoun's residence outside Beirut in 2005. The FPM blasted the authorities for storming into the homes of two of its members, insisting there were no weapons seized or military uniforms found, accusing the authorities of siding with the pro-Western government backed by the March 14 Alliance. The group also accused the authorities of trying to divert attention away from its demand to investigate how militant Fatah Al Islam elements had been financed and armed in recent battles with the army that lasted almost three months outside Nahr Al Bared refugee camp in Northern Lebanon. FPM spokesman Alain Aoun told Agence France-Presse (AFP): "The kids made a mistake." He insisted they were not combat units "as the ruling majority is claiming ... They were just out having fun with real weapons, but were not undergoing any military training as such." Whatever the truth behind these photographs, many Lebanese don't see that playing with real weapons - especially in light of the serious political crisis - as "fun." The Lebanese are becoming increasingly worried over a rising trend of available arms in the hands of rival political groups and their supporters. Political leaders have been accusing each other of stocking up on firearms and forming militias in the past year; the authorities have, on several occasions, announced the seizure of illegal weapons from political groups that either back the government of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora or the opposition, supported by Syria and Iran. With the Taif accord that ended Lebanon's 1975 to 1990 civil war, all factions disarmed their militias, excluding the Shiite Hezbollah organization, which has made good on its promise never to turn its guns against its people, only at Israel. Few believe the denials made by every party - except Hezbollah - that they were stocking up on arms and training militias. And the government, which has hardly been effective in the past year while the opposition has been trying to have it replaced, says it does not tolerate political parties having their own security forces, warning that doing so could lead to a new civil war. George Alam, an independent Lebanese political analyst, said there is a trend of armament in the country and that "outside forces" with interests are financing this trend. "A green light was given by some outside parties to finance this trend, in light of the political instability in Lebanon," Alam told the Middle East Times in a telephone interview. With the way in which the country's political forces is now divided, "outside parties" means both the US and West on the one hand, and Syria and Iran on the other. "I believe the previous militias have returned to the scene and all that's needed is a new decision to ignite a new civil war," Alam warned, in reference to some former warlords who are now leading political parties, backed by one-or-another foreign force. While the analyst ruled out another civil war breaking out in the immediate future, "because there is a glimmer of hope for a solution to the political deadlock," he said the growing trend of forming and arming militias is linked to attempts by some politicians to "internationalize" the issue of militias and expand on UN Security Council Resolution 1559. Resolution 1559 called for the disarming of all militias, implicitly indicating Hezbollah, which refuses to give up its weapons as it considers itself an anti-Israeli resistance organization. However, some of the Western-backed, anti-Syrian March 14 Alliance groups are seeking to spell out Hezbollah by name in that international resolution, in an effort to weaken the group, which enjoys substantial grassroots support. And some analysts believe the leaning toward bringing in arms, setting up militias, and training them is an attempt to shock the international community to intervene in the Shiite group's disarmament. The question remains: Can the surge of weapons in the hands of bickering political groups be controlled now? Alam does not believe so. "We cannot control this trend and the people taking advantage of the political chaos in the absence of a functioning government," he said. "Until the election of the president, all options are open." The government allies and the opposition - led by Hezbollah, and including the Shiite Amal movement of parliament speaker Nabih Berri and Aoun's FPM - have been deadlocked over the choice of a new president to replace pro-Syrian incumbent Emile Lahoud. The first parliamentary session held last month to elect a successor failed to achieve a quorum and the House is due to reconvene October 23 to vote for a new president