Sept 23 (Reuters) - Lebanon's protracted political crisis now revolves around choosing a new president to succeed Emile Lahoud, a pro-Syrian figure whose term expires in November.
Rifts between the anti-Syrian governing coalition and the Hezbollah-led opposition cast doubt on parliament's ability to choose a replacement for Lahoud, whose own term was controversially extended in 2004 at Syria's behest.
The pro-government coalition wants to ensure the next president shares its goals of keeping Lebanon free of Syrian control and backing U.N. efforts to bring the assassins of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and others to justice.
Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, and its allies favour a president who will not allow Lebanon to fall into Washington's orbit or pursue U.N. Security Council resolutions demanding that the Shi'ite Muslim guerrilla group disarm.
Here are answers to questions about the election and what might happen if it fails to take place.
Rifts between the anti-Syrian governing coalition and the Hezbollah-led opposition cast doubt on parliament's ability to choose a replacement for Lahoud, whose own term was controversially extended in 2004 at Syria's behest.
The pro-government coalition wants to ensure the next president shares its goals of keeping Lebanon free of Syrian control and backing U.N. efforts to bring the assassins of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and others to justice.
Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, and its allies favour a president who will not allow Lebanon to fall into Washington's orbit or pursue U.N. Security Council resolutions demanding that the Shi'ite Muslim guerrilla group disarm.
Here are answers to questions about the election and what might happen if it fails to take place.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
Lebanon's 128-member parliament elects a president, by tradition a Maronite Christian in the sectarian power-sharing system, for a six-year term. The president retains substantial powers, even though these were reduced under the Taif Agreement that ended the 1975-90 civil war. Parliament has in the past mustered at least two-thirds of its members to pick a president.
There are five declared candidates -- Nassib Lahoud, Boutros Harb and Robert Ghanem for the anti-Syrian bloc known as March 14; Michel Aoun for the opposition; and outsider Chibli Mallat.
But the president may well be chosen from an array of potential compromise candidates, who include Michel Suleiman, the army commander, and Central Bank Governor Riyad Salameh.
Lebanon's 128-member parliament elects a president, by tradition a Maronite Christian in the sectarian power-sharing system, for a six-year term. The president retains substantial powers, even though these were reduced under the Taif Agreement that ended the 1975-90 civil war. Parliament has in the past mustered at least two-thirds of its members to pick a president.
There are five declared candidates -- Nassib Lahoud, Boutros Harb and Robert Ghanem for the anti-Syrian bloc known as March 14; Michel Aoun for the opposition; and outsider Chibli Mallat.
But the president may well be chosen from an array of potential compromise candidates, who include Michel Suleiman, the army commander, and Central Bank Governor Riyad Salameh.
WHAT ARE THE OBSTACLES?
The March 14 coalition insists on electing one of its own to consolidate the freedom, sovereignty and independence it says Lebanon gained after Damascus withdrew its troops in April 2005.
The opposition says this would effectively put Lebanon under Western instead of Syrian tutelage. Its candidate, Aoun, was once a fierce critic of Syria, but is now allied to Hezbollah and Amal, another Syrian-backed Shi'ite faction.
The two sides are evenly balanced, with the March 14 bloc holding a razor-thin majority in the assembly. Efforts to win agreement on a compromise candidate have yet to bear fruit.
Internal disputes are complicated by the links of Lebanese factions with the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria and other powers vying for influence in the Middle East.
The March 14 coalition insists on electing one of its own to consolidate the freedom, sovereignty and independence it says Lebanon gained after Damascus withdrew its troops in April 2005.
The opposition says this would effectively put Lebanon under Western instead of Syrian tutelage. Its candidate, Aoun, was once a fierce critic of Syria, but is now allied to Hezbollah and Amal, another Syrian-backed Shi'ite faction.
The two sides are evenly balanced, with the March 14 bloc holding a razor-thin majority in the assembly. Efforts to win agreement on a compromise candidate have yet to bear fruit.
Internal disputes are complicated by the links of Lebanese factions with the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria and other powers vying for influence in the Middle East.
WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is also the leader of Amal, has called parliament to convene a session to elect a president on Tuesday, but there is no chance of achieving a two-thirds quorum without a prior agreement between the opposing camps. Berri could then set a new date for a session in October.
Apart from settling on a compromise candidate, the challenge would be to agree a broader package deal on ending Lebanon's 10-month-old political crisis with a national unity government.
If the deadlock persists -- and an opposition boycott prevents a two-thirds quorum in parliament -- the March 14 group has threatened to elect a president by simple majority.
The opposition, which considers Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government lost its legitimacy when all Shi'ite ministers and one Christian resigned in November, says any such move would be an unconstitutional recipe for conflict and chaos.
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is also the leader of Amal, has called parliament to convene a session to elect a president on Tuesday, but there is no chance of achieving a two-thirds quorum without a prior agreement between the opposing camps. Berri could then set a new date for a session in October.
Apart from settling on a compromise candidate, the challenge would be to agree a broader package deal on ending Lebanon's 10-month-old political crisis with a national unity government.
If the deadlock persists -- and an opposition boycott prevents a two-thirds quorum in parliament -- the March 14 group has threatened to elect a president by simple majority.
The opposition, which considers Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government lost its legitimacy when all Shi'ite ministers and one Christian resigned in November, says any such move would be an unconstitutional recipe for conflict and chaos.
WHAT IF NO PRESIDENT IS ELECTED?
Lahoud has said he will refuse to hand power to Siniora's government if no president has been elected when his term expires on Nov. 23. He has floated the idea of naming Army Commander Michel Suleiman as head of an interim cabinet.
That would set the stage for the emergence of rival governments competing for power in a re-run of a 1988-90 experience which produced only bloodshed and disaster.
A contest between two governments could split the army, provoke violence or even plunge Lebanon back into civil war.
Lahoud has said he will refuse to hand power to Siniora's government if no president has been elected when his term expires on Nov. 23. He has floated the idea of naming Army Commander Michel Suleiman as head of an interim cabinet.
That would set the stage for the emergence of rival governments competing for power in a re-run of a 1988-90 experience which produced only bloodshed and disaster.
A contest between two governments could split the army, provoke violence or even plunge Lebanon back into civil war.
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