By The Daily Star Saturday, September 15, 2007
Lebanon's political class seems well on its way to squandering another opportunity to undo the multiple Gordian knots its members have tied for themselves and their unfortunate constituents. Speaker Nabih Berri proffered a generous and ingenious formula with the potential to allow both sides to climb down from their respective positions without losing face. He failed to carry out the necessary follow-up that might have given his initiative more momentum, but at least he left the door open for the March 14 camp - and other key opposition players endorsed the speaker's gambit. Unfortunately, however, the government and its allies have failed thus far to do their part by accepting the invitation, almost certainly because certain key figures insist on clinging to maximalist terms.
As is generally the case when Lebanon's politicians undertake a delicate task without adult supervision, they appear to be failing. Berri assumed that the details and utility of his plan would be communicated spontaneously by a process akin to osmosis. More moderate figures like Prime Minister Fouad Siniora indicated that they understood the value of the initiative, but similar realizations failed to dawn on two of his most important cohorts: Democratic Gathering chief Walid Jumblatt and Lebanese Forces boss Samir Geagea. Intoxicated with the attentions they have received from US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman, these two potential kingmakers have done their best to impose an all-or-nothing approach on their allies - and so far it has worked. And so the stalemate continues. A heated debate continues over what, precisely, the Constitution means when it says a two-thirds quorum is required for Parliament to hold an initial vote on the next president. And both sides are preparing for the possibility of a dramatic escalation in their power struggle in the coming two months. All the while, the general population remains in limbo, unsure of what will happen next but generally looking for the exits because they have no confidence in their "leaders" to behave in a manner consistent with the national interest.
The best that can be hoped for in the short term is that each side honors its commitment to refrain from taking to the streets. This year began with an ugly example of what can happen when crowds of angry young men, somehow convinced of their respective masters' infallibility, attempt to "prove" their moral rectitude by bashing one another's skulls. This brand of collective suicide always has the capacity to degenerate into full-fledged warfare, but even if it is contained, it wastes precious lives and heaps hardship on all and sundry by wreaking havoc on the economy.
The onus is on the leaderships of both sides, therefore, to dampen the impact of their squabble by moving - now - to control their more ardent supporters. That is the least they can do.
Lebanon's political class seems well on its way to squandering another opportunity to undo the multiple Gordian knots its members have tied for themselves and their unfortunate constituents. Speaker Nabih Berri proffered a generous and ingenious formula with the potential to allow both sides to climb down from their respective positions without losing face. He failed to carry out the necessary follow-up that might have given his initiative more momentum, but at least he left the door open for the March 14 camp - and other key opposition players endorsed the speaker's gambit. Unfortunately, however, the government and its allies have failed thus far to do their part by accepting the invitation, almost certainly because certain key figures insist on clinging to maximalist terms.
As is generally the case when Lebanon's politicians undertake a delicate task without adult supervision, they appear to be failing. Berri assumed that the details and utility of his plan would be communicated spontaneously by a process akin to osmosis. More moderate figures like Prime Minister Fouad Siniora indicated that they understood the value of the initiative, but similar realizations failed to dawn on two of his most important cohorts: Democratic Gathering chief Walid Jumblatt and Lebanese Forces boss Samir Geagea. Intoxicated with the attentions they have received from US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman, these two potential kingmakers have done their best to impose an all-or-nothing approach on their allies - and so far it has worked. And so the stalemate continues. A heated debate continues over what, precisely, the Constitution means when it says a two-thirds quorum is required for Parliament to hold an initial vote on the next president. And both sides are preparing for the possibility of a dramatic escalation in their power struggle in the coming two months. All the while, the general population remains in limbo, unsure of what will happen next but generally looking for the exits because they have no confidence in their "leaders" to behave in a manner consistent with the national interest.
The best that can be hoped for in the short term is that each side honors its commitment to refrain from taking to the streets. This year began with an ugly example of what can happen when crowds of angry young men, somehow convinced of their respective masters' infallibility, attempt to "prove" their moral rectitude by bashing one another's skulls. This brand of collective suicide always has the capacity to degenerate into full-fledged warfare, but even if it is contained, it wastes precious lives and heaps hardship on all and sundry by wreaking havoc on the economy.
The onus is on the leaderships of both sides, therefore, to dampen the impact of their squabble by moving - now - to control their more ardent supporters. That is the least they can do.
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