By The Daily Star Monday, September 24, 2007
Editorial
Editorial
Don't expect much from the "ice-breaking" scheduled to take place on Tuesday, the much-ballyhooed date when the Lebanese Parliament is theoretically scheduled to convene for the election of a new president. Earlier meetings have taken place both inside and outside Lebanon, and participants indicate that they amounted to little more than exercises in futility. If substantive changes had taken place, there would have been some indication, even from behind closed doors. These have yet to emerge, so while every Lebanese should be hoping for the best, each and every one of us should also be preparing for the worst.
All signs point, instead, to a very dangerous period ahead, one in which those accustomed to using violence to further their goals are liable to strike again at any moment. Lebanon's political class, it seems, has not yet figured out the fact that its usual way of doing things is inadequate to the monumental task at hand. With the government and the opposition having all but declared war on one another, the impasse can only be broken by an unshakable commitment to placing the national interest above all else. Patently, neither side has taken that step thus far, so the political forecast has to be for stormy weather in the coming weeks.
Other countries with more stable histories, stronger economies and less troublesome neighbors can afford logjams that temporarily paralyze their governments and spark arguments among their citizens. Lebanon cannot. Francois Bassil, who heads the Association of Banks of Lebanon, has warned that the current situation is not sustainable: If it continues much longer, he says, the national economy will go into free-fall. With all the other tensions prevailing in the country, that in itself could spark all manner of public discord that throws the entire population back into the chaos witnessed far too often in both the distant and recent past.
There is still a chance that a breakthrough will be engineered at the last moment, that after almost a year of gambling with their constituents' destinies, the two camps will agree to a workable compromise. It is a thin one, though, and it would demand better judgment, clearer vision and incalculably more maturity than this country's politicians have demonstrated. Barring a miracle, therefore, the best that can realistically be hoped for on Tuesday is that MPs from rival parties who encounter one another can be prevented from engaging in an embarrassing episode of fisticuffs - or worse. Once a follow-on session has been scheduled, perhaps they will at last get down to the business of serious negotiations aimed at protecting Lebanon's future instead of stonewalling designed to safeguard the narrow interests of individual politicians and their lackeys. But don't count on it.
All signs point, instead, to a very dangerous period ahead, one in which those accustomed to using violence to further their goals are liable to strike again at any moment. Lebanon's political class, it seems, has not yet figured out the fact that its usual way of doing things is inadequate to the monumental task at hand. With the government and the opposition having all but declared war on one another, the impasse can only be broken by an unshakable commitment to placing the national interest above all else. Patently, neither side has taken that step thus far, so the political forecast has to be for stormy weather in the coming weeks.
Other countries with more stable histories, stronger economies and less troublesome neighbors can afford logjams that temporarily paralyze their governments and spark arguments among their citizens. Lebanon cannot. Francois Bassil, who heads the Association of Banks of Lebanon, has warned that the current situation is not sustainable: If it continues much longer, he says, the national economy will go into free-fall. With all the other tensions prevailing in the country, that in itself could spark all manner of public discord that throws the entire population back into the chaos witnessed far too often in both the distant and recent past.
There is still a chance that a breakthrough will be engineered at the last moment, that after almost a year of gambling with their constituents' destinies, the two camps will agree to a workable compromise. It is a thin one, though, and it would demand better judgment, clearer vision and incalculably more maturity than this country's politicians have demonstrated. Barring a miracle, therefore, the best that can realistically be hoped for on Tuesday is that MPs from rival parties who encounter one another can be prevented from engaging in an embarrassing episode of fisticuffs - or worse. Once a follow-on session has been scheduled, perhaps they will at last get down to the business of serious negotiations aimed at protecting Lebanon's future instead of stonewalling designed to safeguard the narrow interests of individual politicians and their lackeys. But don't count on it.
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